Building peace in the minds of men and women

Communicating uncertainty

While the complexity of uncertainty analysis methods may have hindered its practical application, the development of clear guidance on methods and applications will go long way in facilitating such application. IHP, through its ability to mobilize scientific expertise in assisting Member States can contribute and lead the efforts through its various initiatives, such as IFI. 
There is increasing interest in assessing uncertainty in hydrology and analyzing its possible effects on hydrological modeling and prediction. It is important to communicate uncertainty to those who use the results of hydrologic modeling, for example, in modeling streamflow with little to no in situ data. Nevertheless, environmental agencies, river basin authorities and engineering consultancies rarely apply recent advances in uncertainty analysis and probabilistic mapping of water-related hazards/risks.