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Climate Risk-based Decision Analysis (CRIDA)


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Further Reading

Scientific Papers on CRIDA


Verbist, K. M. J., H. Maureira, P. Rojas and S. Vicuna. 2020. A Stress Test for Climate Change Impacts on Water Security: a CRIDA Case Study. Climate Risk Management Journal. Article reference: CRM_CLRM_2019_150.  


Carstens, Christoffer, Karin Mossberg Sonnek, Riitta Räty, Per Wikman-Svahn, Annika Carlsson-Kanyama and Jonathan Metzger. 2019. Insights from Testing a Modified Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways Approach for Spatial Planning at the Municipal Level. Sustainability 2019, 11(2), 433;


Gilroy, Kristin and Jeuken, Ad. 2018. Collaborative Risk Informed Decision Analysis: A water security case study in the Philippines. Climate Services 11: 62-71.

Gómez-Dueñas, Santiago, Kristin Gilroy, Berry Gersonius and Michael McClain. 2018. Decision Making under Future Climate Uncertainty: Analysis of the Hydropower Sector in the Magdalena River Basin, Colombia. Aqua-LAC 10(2): 81-92.

In preparation

Tkach, M., J. Kucharski, J. Olszewski, R. Chaudhry, and G. Mendoza. In Press. A risk informed study to enhance water supply resilience of the Iolanda Water treatment plant in Zambia.

Mendoza et al., in prep. Reducing flood risk through green infrastructure in Udon Thani, Thailand.

UN Publications and References to CRIDA

UNESCO, UN-Water, 2020: United Nations World Water Development Report 2020: Water and Climate Change, Paris, UNESCO. 

Verbist, K. M. J., H. Maureira and P. Rojas. 2020. A Climate Stress Test to Identify the Impacts of Climate Change on Water Security: Case Study from the Limari Case Study in Chile. UNESCO, Paris, 46p.

Reference document for Addressing Water in National Adaptation Plans: Water Supplement to the UNFCCC. NAP Technical Guidelines. Second Edition, April 2019

Referenced in Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity. 2019. Voluntary Guidelines for the Design and Effective Implementation of Ecosystem Based Approaches to Climate Change Adaptation and Disaster Risk Reduction and Supplementary Information. Technical Series No. 93.

Formally adopted by the UNECE Working Group on Water and Health Programme of Work for 2020-2022 as a tool in the section on “Building capacity to increase resilience to climate change.” 

Mendoza, G. F., et al. 2018. Climate Risk Informed Decision Analysis. UNESCO and ICIWaRM: Paris, France and Alexandria, USA. 162 p. 

Matthews, J.H. and G. Mendoza. 2015. Designing for Climate Confidence: Moving Beyond Uncertainty. In Sustainable Water Management. Pp. 20-29 in Water Monographies (III): Water & Sustainable Development. UN Water for Life Decade.

Other Publications and References Therein

Matthews, J., Matthews, N., Simmons, E., & Vigerstol, K. 2019. Wellspring: Source Water Resilience and Climate Adaptation. Arlington, VA: The Nature Conservancy. CRIDA was extensively cited in the chapter on Resilience Strategies: Managing for Climate Robustness and Flexibility, and in the chapter on Integrating Resilient SWP [Source Water Protection] into Decision-Making Processes.

Radhakrishnan, Mohanasundar, Assela Pathirana, Richard M. Ashley, Berry Gersonius, Chris Zevenbergen. 2018. Flexible adaptation planning for water sensitive cities. Cities 78: 87-95.

Haasnoot, Marjolijn, Andrew Warren and Jan H. Kwakkel. 2019. Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways (DAPP). Pp. 71-92 in Decision Making under Deep Uncertainty: From Theory to Practice. Springer Nature Switzerland AG. Discusses CRIDA as a combination of decision scaling and DAPP.

Salinas-Rodriguez, Carlos, Berry Gersonius, Chris Zevenbergen, David Serrano and Richard Ashley. 2018. A Semi Risk-Based Approach for Managing Urban Drainage Systems under Extreme Rainfall. Water 10(4): 384;

Burgess, Richard, Keith Horbatuck and Mario Beruvides. 2019. From Mosaic to Systemic Redux: The Conceptual Foundation of Resilience and Its Operational Implications for Water Resource Management. Systems 7(3): 32; .

Tonmoy, F. N., Rissik, D., & Palutikof, J. P. (2019). A three-tier risk assessment process for climate change adaptation at a local scale. Climatic Change153(4), 539-557. 

Matthews, J et al. 2018. Mastering disaster in a changing climate: Reducing disaster risk through resilient water management. Global Water Forum. .

Referenced in Watering the NDCs as a tool for increasing water resilience in climate planning. Watering the NDCs: National Climate Planning for 2020—How water-aware climate policies can strengthen climate change mitigation & adaptation goals. Corvallis, Oregon: Alliance for Global Water Adaptation (AGWA). Nov. 2019. .

Referenced in Water Background Paper for the Global Commission on Adaptation as a framework for addressing vulnerabilities in infrastructure, technology, and water management.

Smith, D.M., Matthews, J.H., Bharati, L., Borgomeo, E., McCartney, M., Mauroner, A., Nicol, A., Rodriguez, D., Sadoff, C., Suhardiman, D., Timboe, I., Amarnath, G., and Anisha, N. 2019. “Adaptation’s thirst: Accelerating the convergence of water and climate action.” Background Paper prepared for the 2019 report of the Global Commission on Adaptation, Rotterdam and Washington, DC. Available online at

CRIDA forms the basis of, and is the primary text for IHE-Delft’s course # M3275: Planning and Delivery of Flood Resilience. Coordinator: Berry Gersonius.

World Bank – Decision Tree Framework

Ray, P. A., Taner, M. Ü., Schlef, K. E., Wi, S., Khan, H. F., Freeman, S. S. G., & Brown, C. M. (2019). Growth of the Decision Tree: Advances in Bottom‐Up Climate Change Risk Management. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association55(4), 920-937.

Ray, P. A., Bonzanigo, L., Wi, S., Yang, Y. E., Karki, P., García, L. E., Rodriguez, D. J., Brown, C. M.  (2018). “Multidimensional stress test for hydropower investments facing climate, geophysical and financial uncertainty.” Global Environmental Change, 48, 168-181, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2017.11.013.

Taner, M. Ü., Ray, P. A., Brown, C. M. (2017). “Robustness-based evaluation of water infrastructure design under climate change.” Climate Risk Management, 18, 34-50, doi: 10.1016/j.crm.2017.08.002.

Yang, Y. E., Wi, S., Ray, P. A., Brown, C. M., and Khalil, A. F. (2016). “The future nexus of the Brahmaputra River Basin: Climate, water, energy and food trajectories.” Global Environmental Change, 37, 16-30, doi: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2016.01.002.

Ray, P., and Brown, C. (2015). “Confronting Climate Uncertainty in Water Resources Planning and Project Design: The Decision Tree Framework.” World Bank Group, Washington, D.C., doi: 10.1596/978-1-4648-0477-9,

Ray, P. A., Yang, Y. E., Wi, S., Khalil, A. F., Chatikavanij, V., Brown, C. M. (2015). Room for improvement: Hydroclimatic Challenges to Poverty-reducing Development of the Brahmaputra River.” Environmental Science and Policy, 64-80, doi: 10.1016/j.envsci.2015.06.015.